Gold: “The rally is over”

In their latest study the analysts proclaim the end of the gold boom and see a new star in the commodity sky for the year: copper. The analysts forecast a recovery of the global economy and a US central bank that will not spoil the market with interest rate cuts. This will increase investors’ appetite for risk and put pressure on the gold price. Gold will fall to $1,350 an ounce first, then to $1,250 an ounce later. In return, the copper price will recover. Here, demand for physical copper will exceed supply. The analysts see a copper price of 10,000 dollars per tonne by the end of 2025.

 

Let me put it this way: If I had received 100 euros every time someone told me that the copper price would rise because of a supply deficit, then I would have a nice extra income. In fact, I am bullish for the copper price in the medium to long term. The fact is, however, that copper has done nothing in recent months to support a bullish picture. And as long as copper is trading below the $6,400/tonne mark, I don’t think there’s any reason to get into the industrial metal. The story – demand is rising, supply is falling – has been known for many months, actually for years. And what has it brought to the copper price?

 

Back to gold: We see some analysts expecting sharp interest rate cuts. Others, on the other hand, see the economy on the road to recovery. You can speculate about that. But what we do know is that the price of gold has corrected in recent weeks. This correction remains intact. But after the gains of the previous months, this correction is normal and is currently interpreted by us as a normal and healthy correction in an upward trend. Therefore, we cannot agree with the bearish view of Capital Economics. On the contrary, there are some indications that gold will start the next rally phase sooner rather than later and that the gold price will rise towards 1,600 dollars.