Gold price: is something going to happen before the turn of the year?

The gold price has been in relatively calm waters since the beginning of December. Is there anything in favor of a stronger price movement until the turn of the year? A quick analysis.

 

Gold price stable

Quite a few investors surely assume that the stock market year has already ended. The gold price has been in a relatively narrow range between $ 1,450 and $ 1,480 an ounce over the past four weeks. At 10:30 this morning, the troy ounce of gold on the spot market was $ 1,478. That corresponded to 1,326 euros. Silver was traded at $ 17.03. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has increased by 15 percent (+18% in euros). Silver rose by 9.5 percent (12.5% ​​in euros). Why should there be more momentum in precious metal prices by the turn of the year?

 

Fundamental view

From a fundamental point of view, basically not much is to be expected, at least on the bottom (falling quotes). The next Brexit deadline is the end of January. There is a temporary ceasefire in the US-China trade war. The general economic data always falls short of expectations, but the major slump has so far failed to materialize. The Fed has cut interest rate expectations for next year. And it is assumed that current impeachment proceedings against US President Donald Trump will fail at the latest in the Senate because the Republicans have a majority there.

 

Technicals

We already touched on the technical chart position in our article a month. Here it looks with a slightly rising trend for a temporary continuation of the sideways movement – calculated in euros between 1,320 and 1,340 euros.
futures

The last expiry dates of the year for gold and silver are on the COMEX US futures exchange on December 26 and 27. In general, one could assume that some fund managers and investment companies will deposit gold again before the turn of the year. Because in the course of the so-called “window dressing”, the money managers like to have values ​​in their portfolio at the end of the year that went well in the year. Gold is definitely one of them. The headwind for the precious metals could possibly remain subdued from this direction.

 

Historical

In the past few years too little has happened in terms of gold prices from mid to late December. The following graphic shows this. After all, last year the gold price climbed by more than 4 percent in December (see: How the Gold Price Develops in December).

 

Upcoming events

The “Phili Fed Index” and figures on the sales of existing residential properties in November (Thursday) as well as the final data on US economic growth in the third quarter and details on the personal income and expenditure of the Americans come from the USA this week (every Friday). Conclusion: Unexpectedly comes often, but excessive downside risks cannot currently be seen in the gold price.

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